PC Forecaster
Updated monthly · Real-data backtested

Know the right month
to buy your PC parts.

PC Forecaster pulls historical PCPartPicker snapshots and daily HardwareDealsCo price feeds, fits a Random Forest with out-of-time backtests, and projects 12 months of forecast prices for every component — so you can buy at the bottom, not the top.

GPU MAE
$212
23.2% MAPE on held-out months
Storage MAE
$62
21.9% MAPE on held-out months
RAM MAE
$56
15.7% MAPE on held-out months

This month’s top pick per category

See all picks for this month →

Cheapest month by category

Relative forecast price over the next 12 months — greener is cheaper within each category. ★ marks the projected cheapest month.

Pipeline scale

Components
6,078
Observed prices
8,185
Monthly rows
71,256
Real-blended
10,153
Your observations
0
Calibrations
0

Real-Data Backtest

The credible accuracy claim. The model trains on synthetic plus early real-blended months and is tested on the last three months of real prices — values it never saw.

Category MAE RMSE MAPE n test
GPU $212 $362 23.2% 0.85 559
Storage $62 $107 21.9% 0.87 1,689
RAM $56 $97 15.7% 0.89 1,055

Components by Category

CPU553
GPU1,424
RAM2,147
Storage1,954

Spec → Tier Classifier

Random Forest, macro-F1 across cheap / mid / expensive.

GPU 0.831
CPU 0.702
RAM 0.778
Storage 0.673

Regression (synthetic split)

Model MAE RMSE MAPE
Naive (expected_price) $88.01 $190.86 21.18% 0.8170
Linear Regression $93.61 $190.05 24.98% 0.8185
Decision Tree $89.08 $193.52 21.86% 0.8119
Random Forest $88.85 $193.85 21.41% 0.8112

The naive baseline (just expected_price) sits within a dollar of the best ML model. Most of the R² comes from the linear trend, not from learning.