Know the right month
to buy your PC parts.
PC Forecaster pulls historical PCPartPicker snapshots and daily HardwareDealsCo price feeds, fits a Random Forest with out-of-time backtests, and projects 12 months of forecast prices for every component — so you can buy at the bottom, not the top.
This month’s top pick per category
See all picks for this month →
Cheapest month by category
Relative forecast price over the next 12 months — greener is cheaper within each category. ★ marks the projected cheapest month.
Pipeline scale
Real-Data Backtest
The credible accuracy claim. The model trains on synthetic plus early real-blended months and is tested on the last three months of real prices — values it never saw.
| Category | MAE | RMSE | MAPE | R² | n test |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPU | $212 | $362 | 23.2% | 0.85 | 559 |
| Storage | $62 | $107 | 21.9% | 0.87 | 1,689 |
| RAM | $56 | $97 | 15.7% | 0.89 | 1,055 |
Components by Category
| CPU | 553 |
| GPU | 1,424 |
| RAM | 2,147 |
| Storage | 1,954 |
Spec → Tier Classifier
Random Forest, macro-F1 across cheap / mid / expensive.
| GPU | 0.831 |
| CPU | 0.702 |
| RAM | 0.778 |
| Storage | 0.673 |
Regression (synthetic split)
| Model | MAE | RMSE | MAPE | R² |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naive (expected_price) | $88.01 | $190.86 | 21.18% | 0.8170 |
| Linear Regression | $93.61 | $190.05 | 24.98% | 0.8185 |
| Decision Tree | $89.08 | $193.52 | 21.86% | 0.8119 |
| Random Forest | $88.85 | $193.85 | 21.41% | 0.8112 |
The naive baseline (just expected_price) sits within a dollar of the best ML model. Most of the R² comes from the linear trend, not from learning.